on the waterfront

Map showing inundated sections of Metro Manila if the sea level rises by 10M.

What will the metropolis look like if global climate change models are correct? How much land will we lose? The image above takes the extreme case of a 10M rise in sea levels. (This for a higher contrast version

You can keep this image in mind as you watch Al's film (which I hope will open in Metro Manila soon).

Alex Tingle has developed a googlemap app that shows global sea water rise. You can dial up the sea level from 1m to 20m.

If the models are correct, then Tondo and Binondo will survive as islands. The rest of Manila, large parts of Paranaque, all of Pasay and San Juan will be reclaimed by the Bay.

(On a personal note: it is s00o difficult to get back to the habit of posting - but hopefully, this one will get the juices flowing again.)


DanieL said...

interesting and yet scary thought. should we be alarmed and start planning as early as now?

Urbano dela Cruz said...

not really. I don't think you find the political will or the urban plan that will prepare you for a catastrophic event.

Sea levels are rising, but the worst case scenarios show a rise of about 5-6 meters over the next century.

As a thought experiment, I think it helps us understand that:

1) cities are not static
2) urban form is captive to the environment

That being said, the social-darwinist would propose that we stop trying to protect our low lying areas (e.g. Navotas). Unless we are prepared to put in herculean efforts to restrain the sea (ala the dutch), then our resources would be put to better use elsewhere in the city.

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