urbanization and population

Image credit: My Sari-sari Store

Replying to both of Sydney's comments:

The population IS growing - but the fertility is dropping. Metro Manila's population growth is driven by both in-migration (transfer from villages to cities) and birth rate (which is dropping but is still above the replenishment rate in the neighboring regions).

This is consistent with global trends - by 2007, the world will reach a tipping point where more than 50% of the world's population will live in cities. OECD countries reached that tipping point early in the 70's. By the 2000 census, some 48.05% of the country's population was already living in urbanized areas.

Metro Manila and the expanded region will continue to grow population wise, but the fertility rates will continue to drop as the region continues to urbanize. Drops in fertility rates mean parents will have more resources to provide their children, and more time for work. In other countries this trend has been accompanied by increases in productivity and in entrepreneurial activity.

That being said, the time horizon for the effect on Metro Manila of the confluence - a larger urban population nationwide (happening soon); and the drop below replenishment rate (not sure when but the numbers are trending) -is probably 20-30 years (about a generation and a half).

Knowing what's coming over the horizon means we have to consider these effects as we envision scenarios for the future of Metro Manila.


Sidney said...

Now I get it. Thanks for the explanation. Sorry I am not so familiar with this topic and my input might sound a bit stupid.

If I get it right the population will grow till 2025/2035 and from then start to stabilize and shrink?

What is your vision for Metro Manila (and other urban centers like Cebu City) in 2035 and let's say 2050?
What should the government do?

Are the Philippines on the right track or are we heading for a desaster?

Urbano dela Cruz said...

sorry for the delayed response.

we are heading for a disaster in that all megacities are heading for a disaster: overpopulation and ecological damage.

can we course correct in 50 years? definitely.

what is my vision? that we actually all sit down and begin to envision. it has to be a shared vision.

my commitment is to get people to start thinking about Manila for the long term.

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